Launch Edition Delivery Timing

[nate320]

This may be wishful thinking, but I’ve seen a lot of speculation about various production waves and that Launch Editions will be later than other orders. Is it crazy to think that since Jeep was clearly planning the Launch Edition, they could already be churning them out, initially making a few hundred or so in each color that was to be offered, then tailoring the rest to the orders they received last week? The features are the same all around, so it’s not as if they’re that unique when it comes to configuration. Again, for better or worse, the only option we had when ordering was color (until one of you figures out how to swap auto for manual or A/Ts for M/Ts).

I’m trying not to be naive, but to me all signs point to the LE being delivered fairly quickly. Beings that dealers haven’t been able to order their own inventory yet, why do we think JTs will just appear on the lots? I’m sure someone will correct me if I’m wrong, but even dealers have to technically “order” their vehicles that will be sold on the lot. From what I’ve gathered, they’ve been told how many they were allocated to order as a dealer, but have yet to be able to push an order through. Never mind the fact that dealers have to purchase the trucks, just as an invoice shows the dealership as the purchaser/buyer before it is re-sold to a consumer—I don’t believe Jeep intends to randomly ship truckloads of free Gladiators to our friendly neighborhood Jeep dealer. However, @JL-Engineline did say when production started, the JTs would be going to the dealerships first...

Then there’s the fact that no other customer orders have been placed for JTs other than the Launch Edition.

By no means do I think I have it figured out, but am curious about the rumors of Launch Editions being later deliveries than the rest of the purchase types. I also understand that the production line probably isn’t exclusively spitting out Launch Editions, and still needs to produce dealer orders/allocations.

But... from @JL-Engineline, one shift produced 80 JTs; x2 is 160/day, x30 is 4,800/month. I have no clue if they’re doing two 10 hour shifts or three shift operations, but it was mentioned that the line is running 7 days a week—adjust the math to what you want to disagree about. Those production numbers are expected to increase to match a cycle-time of 2:30; that would be 240/shift! Not to mention that the production line has been running since March 19th, theoretically producing 3,200 JTs by the time this is posted—and that’s based off of 160/day.

We can try to account for the Government order speculation (my conspiracy theory is that the Government order was actually the Launch Edition), dealer inventory, Launch Editions, and regular customer orders and try to guess where deliveries fall in the schedule; the excited kid in me believes they can spit out 4,190 Launch Editions to align with them being delivered first... My excitement/opinion aside, so far we know:

1. The Launch Editions are all the same, minus color
2. Dealerships have successfully ordered Launch Editions
3. Dealerships have not/cannot place orders for inventory units/allocation
4. Dealerships have not/cannot place orders for other customer orders
5. Jeep has received a certain amount of Launch Edition orders, that are showing good, now ready for scheduling

What am I missing to believe that the Launch Editions will show up last in this mysterious “wave 3”?

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[kayakmike]

This may be wishful thinking, but I’ve seen a lot of speculation about various production waves and that Launch Editions will be later than other orders. Is it crazy to think that since Jeep was clearly planning the Launch Edition, they could already be churning them out, initially making a few hundred or so in each color that was to be offered, then tailoring the rest to the orders they received last week? The features are the same all around, so it’s not as if they’re that unique when it comes to configuration. Again, for better or worse, the only option we had when ordering was color (until one of you figures out how to swap auto for manual or A/Ts for M/Ts).

I’m trying not to be naive, but to me all signs point to the LE being delivered fairly quickly. Beings that dealers haven’t been able to order their own inventory yet, why do we think JTs will just appear on the lots? I’m sure someone will correct me if I’m wrong, but even dealers have to technically “order” their vehicles that will be sold on the lot. From what I’ve gathered, they’ve been told how many they were allocated to order as a dealer, but have yet to be able to push an order through. Never mind the fact that dealers have to purchase the trucks, just as an invoice shows the dealership as the purchaser/buyer before it is re-sold to a consumer—I don’t believe Jeep intends to randomly ship truckloads of free Gladiators to our friendly neighborhood Jeep dealer. However, @JL-Engineline did say when production started, the JTs would be going to the dealerships first...

Then there’s the fact that no other customer orders have been placed for JTs other than the Launch Edition.

By no means do I think I have it figured out, but am curious about the rumors of Launch Editions being later deliveries than the rest of the purchase types. I also understand that the production line probably isn’t exclusively spitting out Launch Editions, and still needs to produce dealer orders/allocations.

But... from @JL-Engineline, one shift produced 80 JTs; x2 is 160/day, x30 is 4,800/month. I have no clue if they’re doing two 10 hour shifts or three shift operations, but it was mentioned that the line is running 7 days a week—adjust the math to what you want to disagree about. Those production numbers are expected to increase to match a cycle-time of 2:30; that would be 240/shift! Not to mention that the production line has been running since March 19th, theoretically producing 3,200 JTs by the time this is posted—and that’s based off of 160/day.

We can try to account for the Government order speculation (my conspiracy theory is that the Government order was actually the Launch Edition), dealer inventory, Launch Editions, and regular customer orders and try to guess where deliveries fall in the schedule; the excited kid in me believes they can spit out 4,190 Launch Editions to align with them being delivered first... My excitement/opinion aside, so far we know:

1. The Launch Editions are all the same, minus color
2. Dealerships have successfully ordered Launch Editions
3. Dealerships have not/cannot place orders for inventory units/allocation
4. Dealerships have not/cannot place orders for other customer orders
5. Jeep has received a certain amount of Launch Edition orders, that are showing good, now ready for scheduling

What am I missing to believe that the Launch Editions will show up last in this mysterious “wave 3”?

They've been churning out JTs for several weeks now. I'm sure those are all pre-spect builds that will end up on dealer lots based on previous sales per Jeep bulliten:
https://www.jeepgladiatorforum.com/...r-bank-opens-april-for-june-production.14361/

One could argue that LE is a pre-spec build too.

I'm assuming LE August delivery to dealers based on dealer feedback when the LE was announced/on order. Then hope I'll be surprised when it shows up earlier....

 

[nate320]

They've been churning out JTs for several weeks now. I'm sure those are all pre-spect builds that will end up on dealer lots based on previous sales per Jeep bulliten:
https://www.jeepgladiatorforum.com/...r-bank-opens-april-for-june-production.14361/

One could argue that LE is a pre-spec build too.

I'm assuming LE August delivery to dealers based on dealer feedback when the LE was announced/on order. Then hope I'll be surprised when it shows up earlier....

Man, I would 1,000% call the Launch Edition “pre-spec”! Plus, they should technically be able to account for the color variable and put them into April production. I know my post was mostly speculation too, but dealer feedback has been worthless in this saga. I have a hard time taking delivery info from the same guys who had no clue about the LE until it was announced to the public. Then the same guys who had to walk back on a good chunk of their below invoice deals because it threw a wrench in things when some guys on their in-house waitlist wanted LEs and some didn’t.

Not that I think they didn’t do the right thing for their business, but I think it really shows that they didn’t have a smidge of info about the LE, and they probably don’t know when it’s going to be delivered, either.

Don’t say August—don’t you put that evil on me Ricky Bobby!!

 

[JP1]

So, let's even stick with this wave #. Do we know how long a wave lasts?
could be 2 weeks for all we know. Let's go all glass half full and run with that.
Using the figures above, maybe something like:
Wave 1: 03/19-4/1/2019; production@160/shift= 4480 Gladiators
Wave 2: 04/2-15/2019; production@200/shift= 5600 Gladiators
Wave 3: 04/16-29/2019; production@240/shift= 6720 Gladiators (of which, 4190 LEs sold, is 2530net)
So using these figures, Toledo can whoop out all 4190 LEs, plus 12,610 Dealer Stock by the end of April.

Ya, pretty damn optimistic, but made sense to me with a beer in my hand...

 

[JP1]

So, let's even stick with this wave #. Do we know how long a wave lasts?
could be 2 weeks for all we know. Let's go all glass half full and run with that.
Using the figures above, maybe something like:
Wave 1: 03/19-4/1/2019; production@160/shift= 4480 Gladiators
Wave 2: 04/2-15/2019; production@200/shift= 5600 Gladiators
Wave 3: 04/16-29/2019; production@240/shift= 6720 Gladiators (of which, 4190 LEs sold, is 2530net)
So using these figures, Toledo can whoop out all 4190 LEs, plus 12,610 Dealer Stock by the end of April.

Ya, pretty damn optimistic, but made sense to me with a beer in my hand...

BEER math, round 2:
Even if you take the 7000 mystery government orders out, that still leaves 5610, which is roughly 2 per dealer in the US.
I don't know what you've heard, but 2 dealers here have both said they have "2 on the way"


Dayum, whole mystery solved, what's the next world problem to fix?

 

[nate320]

So, let's even stick with this wave #. Do we know how long a wave lasts?
could be 2 weeks for all we know. Let's go all glass half full and run with that.
Using the figures above, maybe something like:
Wave 1: 03/19-4/1/2019; production@160/shift= 4480 Gladiators
Wave 2: 04/2-15/2019; production@200/shift= 5600 Gladiators
Wave 3: 04/16-29/2019; production@240/shift= 6720 Gladiators (of which, 4190 LEs sold, is 2530net)
So using these figures, Toledo can whoop out all 4190 LEs, plus 12,610 Dealer Stock by the end of April.

Ya, pretty damn optimistic, but made sense to me with a beer in my hand...

Math checks on my end brother! 436/day assuming 24/7 @ a 2:30 cycle...

I’m on the optimistic side with you. I think even if we tone down the units per day, the math is still hard to deny.

Even better, thanks to @kayakmike’s info, I remembered that Jeep was being pretty stingy with dealer allocations in the first place. You could dole out 15 JTs to the ~2,500 FCA dealerships in the U.S. (as of 2017), and still only need to produce 37.5K; I’m sure not all of the 2,500 dealerships will meet the criteria outlined to receive allocations, either.

 

[nate320]

BEER math, round 2:
Even if you take the 7000 mystery government orders out, that still leaves 5610, which is roughly 2 per dealer in the US.
I don't know what you've heard, but 2 dealers here have both said they have "2 on the way"


Dayum, whole mystery solved, what's the next world problem to fix?

Right on man. I hear some people over in the General Discussion are wondering about the tonneau cover being waterproof or how warm it gets in a soft top... Maybe we could lend a hand bahahaha

 

[Blown7]

So, let's even stick with this wave #. Do we know how long a wave lasts?
could be 2 weeks for all we know. Let's go all glass half full and run with that.
Using the figures above, maybe something like:
Wave 1: 03/19-4/1/2019; production@160/shift= 4480 Gladiators
Wave 2: 04/2-15/2019; production@200/shift= 5600 Gladiators
Wave 3: 04/16-29/2019; production@240/shift= 6720 Gladiators (of which, 4190 LEs sold, is 2530net)
So using these figures, Toledo can whoop out all 4190 LEs, plus 12,610 Dealer Stock by the end of April.

Ya, pretty damn optimistic, but made sense to me with a beer in my hand...

You left a lot out..

Like back ordered items not on the assembly line during the run..last year the Grand Cherokee Trackhawk had a 4 week stoppage waiting for rear axles... production stoppage is pretty much guaranteed on first runs.

Also I believe last year the JL line had a backlog on colored hardtops and that resulted in a several week production delay.

 

[Rex3rd]

These trucks will be ran on the assembly like right with regular orders. They are just a fully loaded Rubicon. All they will do is have the parts like rims badge and interior already sitting on the assembly line where the workers will know that there le and put the parts where they go on wich one it's just like trim levels and upgraded options. There already out on the assembly line ready for the workers to install per specs when it changes

 

[pkcal]

Who lives close to Toledo and can do a drive-by at the plant? Must be stacking up inventory of completed builds somewhere in the local area. Even if a view from a distance, shouldn't be hard to tell if they're all Rubis with color match H/T and flares,

I'm a couple hours East or I'd roadtrip out there myself and take a look around.

From JL launch I'd think folks know whether they store on/offsite. Need some spy photos!

 

[nate320]

These trucks will be ran on the assembly like right with regular orders. They are just a fully loaded Rubicon. All they will do is have the parts like rims badge and interior already sitting on the assembly line where the workers will know that there le and put the parts where they go on wich one it's just like trim levels and upgraded options. There already out on the assembly line ready for the workers to install per specs when it changes

It makes sense that they’ll be ran together, but what I’m getting at is that the LEs have already been ordered while regular orders have yet to be possible, leading me to think they’d be delivered before regular orders.

It’s hard to produce them together if nobody can order anything else.

 

[Rex3rd]

It makes sense that they’ll be ran together, but what I’m getting at is that the LEs have already been ordered while regular orders have yet to be possible, leading me to think they’d be delivered before regular orders.

It’s hard to produce them together if nobody can order anything else.

They are already making these trucks probably by the thousands. When Honda unveiled the Honda passport we had tons of them parked before ordering opened up. They will have a stock of them ready when it happens. I'd imagine the le will all be ran at the same time all 4190 of them to save downtime would not be surprised if these trucks were already rolling off the line

 

[robbyr1000]

My dealer told me they are only getting one JT spec provided to them and it should arrive sometime between now and beginning of May. He was a strong believer that the JT LE would be produced like any other customer order. First in line gets produced first. No way someone who orders a regular JT gets ahead of LE orders, especially since they cant order them until May. Also in the system (according to my dealer) SOLD customer orders get higher priority than dealer allocation orders.

Here's to hoping for a 4 - 6 week timeframe from now. Timeline my dealer thinks my LE will show up in Maryland at the dealer.....

 

[Dietruck]

I would bet next week sometime we will see a sign of movement again. Every one was given 7 days to get a deposit in. I would say that next Monday they will start canceling not validated orders and moving down the wait list. At the same time, validated orders will start getting vins.

 

[Graiden]

Anyone put any thought into the fact that the Jeep Freedom contest ends on 4/30/2019 ... and Jeep wanting the videos to be with the JT w/ owner to make a video ... or is that over zealous to believe? Am I hopeful? Also dealership hear in TN believes that he will have me a VIN by end of week, the dealerships allocation will be here in, approx, 10 days and mine would/should be on it.

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