Help estimating Trade in value vs market value in 3 years ?

[atpatter]

Hi all,

I am interested in getting a Jeep gladiator Rubicon or sport.. I'll probably get the Rubicon but not sure yet.

One thing holding me back is waiting In case a 4xe/hybrid comes out in a few years. If it's fully electric, on the other hand, I'm not sure I'll want that due to lack of charging areas here (I can really only charge at home).

In case I want to sell in a few years (say 3), I'm wondering how much loss I might take. I can get depreciation estimates online but that only gives me market or retail value at that future time I think.. I'm not sure what the difference between retail and trade in or sell to CarMax would be? Does anyone have a rough idea how I could calculate that difference? Even a rough estimate...

Also of note, I can get the gladiator with about a 6% below invoice price so that'll help a little but I'm wondering if I'll still lose a lot.

I am also wondering how much more they are going to cost In 3 years. It went up a bit for 2023 model year and I figure hybrid power train would probably add at least another 6k.

Also, what's the best website to calculate market value In a few years? If there's one that would directly just give me trade-in or CarMax sell estimate or similar (I have another car so I can also sell), that would be awesome! There are so many to pick from. I've tried kbb.com but it wants a vin. Since I don't have a vin, I can't get the estimate.


I found a few useful threads like this one https://www.jeepgladiatorforum.com/forum/threads/my-gladiator-trade-in-value-for-reference.35063/ . It doesn't sound like they lost too badly but things are so strange at this time.


Thanks,

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[Garemlin]

With the way the market is no one knows what values will be like in three weeks. Let alone three years. My Willys value dropped $3k in the last few months. So it has now lost $13k in a year in a half. When I had my 2015 Wrangler I wasn't offered squat in trade in. I just don't see how everyone always say Jeeps hold their value. I haven't personally seen it. I guess if you compare to other makes and models they hold their value a little better than most.

I will also add this. My exact build for a 2023 costs almost $7k more than it did for 2021.

 

[Trout Safari]

Sounds like you should just keep your Chevy Volt.

 

[Matts4313]

With the way the market is no one knows what values will be like in three weeks. Let alone three years. My Willys value dropped $3k in a few months. So it has now lost $13k in a year in a half. When I had my 2015 Wrangler I wasn't offered squat in trade in. I just don't see how everyone always say Jeeps hold their value. I haven't personally seen it. I guess if you compare to other makes and models they hold their value a little better than most.

I will also add this. My exact build for a 2023 costs almost $7k more than it did for 2021.

Thats crazy. My JT turns 1 in a couple days, I just ran the KBB and its resale is *up* almost $4K in trade in, its up $7k in 3rd party and price comping it to Autotrader the closest dealership with the most similar model is selling for $14k more than I paid.

I am certain if I sold today I would make over $10k in net-profit, but I have also put a lot of man hours into it.

 

[ShadowsPapa]

Hi all,

I am interested in getting a Jeep gladiator Rubicon or sport.. I'll probably get the Rubicon but not sure yet.

One thing holding me back is waiting In case a 4xe/hybrid comes out in a few years. If it's fully electric, on the other hand, I'm not sure I'll want that due to lack of charging areas here (I can really only charge at home).

In case I want to sell in a few years (say 3), I'm wondering how much loss I might take. I can get depreciation estimates online but that only gives me market or retail value at that future time I think.. I'm not sure what the difference between retail and trade in or sell to CarMax would be? Does anyone have a rough idea how I could calculate that difference? Even a rough estimate...

Also of note, I can get the gladiator with about a 6% below invoice price so that'll help a little but I'm wondering if I'll still lose a lot.

I am also wondering how much more they are going to cost In 3 years. It went up a bit for 2023 model year and I figure hybrid power train would probably add at least another 6k.

Also, what's the best website to calculate market value In a few years? If there's one that would directly just give me trade-in or CarMax sell estimate or similar (I have another car so I can also sell), that would be awesome! There are so many to pick from. I've tried kbb.com but it wants a vin. Since I don't have a vin, I can't get the estimate.


I found a few useful threads like this one https://www.jeepgladiatorforum.com/forum/threads/my-gladiator-trade-in-value-for-reference.35063/ . It doesn't sound like they lost too badly but things are so strange at this time.


Thanks,

Gee, you are trying to estimate what my retirement funds will be at in 3 years.
May as well be, no one, no thing, can estimate any vehicle value in 3 years, not even 1 year.
In fact, it's so unknown that 3 dealers refused to give me a value on my 2020 as a trade because "the market could be totally different in 3 or 4 months". That's months!
Also - trade value varies with location, with dealer, and the condition that dealer is in at the time. CARMAX is a joke, IMO - my dealer, a "MSRP only" dealer, gave me much more in trade on my 2020 than carmax would buying it outright!
In fact, only DRIVEWAY was above the dealer's offer, all others were below. And yet 30 minutes away, same metro area generally speaking, another Jeep dealer, one I've bought from in the past, wouldn't touch the dollar amount the other dealer offered me even if it was a that day trade.
Sorry, not sure what school of economics you went to - but you are either chasing wild geese, or tilting at windmills....... some imaginary numbers that in 6 months will likely be so wrong.
There's going to be some wild swings, depending on this November, as well, then in 2 years, more changes. Doesn't matter who wins or loses, things will change!
You simply can't project car values like that.

 

[ShadowsPapa]

Thats crazy. My JT turns 1 in a couple days, I just ran the KBB and its resale is *up* almost $4K in trade in, its up $7k in 3rd party and price comping it to Autotrader the closest dealership with the most similar model is selling for $14k more than I paid.

I am certain if I sold today I would make over $10k in net-profit, but I have also put a lot of man hours into it.

What they have it listed for isn't always what it sells for. It's like people looking online to get a value for their vehicle based on current advertised prices.
No way it's worth that much more unless you paid WAY under invoice.
Dealers don't use KBB much either - I found that out when looking around for a trade this summer. I was told by 3 dealers - I was looking at the wrong place.
I also found a wild spread among the online places- Driveway, Carmax and a couple of others had spreads about 8K apart. Driveway was the best, carmax sucked, KBB I laughed when I saw their 36K price (driveway was more than 8 over that)
The dealer realities were far different from what those online outfits said.

Good luck with your trade/sale.

 

[ZoMojave]

I have thought of this as I generally trade every three years. Today I used KBB to look up an example to get an idea. Of course, the trade values don't translate into what the market holds three years from now.

For example, I plugged in a 2020 Rubicon with 36K miles equipped to a mid-level (auto, gas, hardtop, LED, premium audio and tow pack). KBB shows a very good condition trade-in value of around 42K. Assuming the truck MSRP was around 57K in late 2019 and the actual purchase price was 53K, that would be a 17% depreciation after three years of driving (not including accessories or maintenance).

 

[Garemlin]

Thats crazy. My JT turns 1 in a couple days, I just ran the KBB and its resale is *up* almost $4K in trade in, its up $7k in 3rd party and price comping it to Autotrader the closest dealership with the most similar model is selling for $14k more than I paid.

I am certain if I sold today I would make over $10k in net-profit, but I have also put a lot of man hours into it.

Seems like location has quite a bit to do with it. Even back when people were getting $10k over what they paid I was only getting quotes that would barely break even.

 

[Mr._Bill]

A vehicle is a money pit, not an investment. The value drops as soon as it's driven off the lot. Trying to make a decision now based on future values is an exercise in futility. Get the best price now (6% below invoice is good) for the vehicle you want equipped the way you want it. Look at the market in three years and make a decision then whether to keep or sell it. If you get the vehicle you want, not just accept something that is available, it makes the decision to keep it much easier if the market is not good in the future. I could have gotten a good trade value for my truck this summer, but the cost for new was higher and it would have put me back in the same financial situation I was in three years ago. Instead, I refinanced through the credit union at a lower interest rate, upgraded the extended warranty, and kept the truck.

 

[Matts4313]

What they have it listed for isn't always what it sells for. It's like people looking online to get a value for their vehicle based on current advertised prices.
No way it's worth that much more unless you paid WAY under invoice.
Dealers don't use KBB much either - I found that out when looking around for a trade this summer. I was told by 3 dealers - I was looking at the wrong place.
I also found a wild spread among the online places- Driveway, Carmax and a couple of others had spreads about 8K apart. Driveway was the best, carmax sucked, KBB I laughed when I saw their 36K price (driveway was more than 8 over that)
The dealer realities were far different from what those online outfits said.

Good luck with your trade/sale.

I paid 8% (7%?) under invoice, whatever Gupton was doing. At that time, Gladiators in Austin were selling for ~$10k over MSRP. And, as I mentioned, I have put a lot of stuff into the Jeep, so it does make it hard to comp. Ive replaced the entire audio system with a huge upgrade, put on a lift and bigger tires, roll bar, stubby bumper, winch, custom design on the exterior, marine grade seats, LEDs all around, orange/white/black accents throughout, etc etc.

Im not selling tho, I love my JT.

Seems like location has quite a bit to do with it. Even back when people were getting $10k over what they paid I was only getting quotes that would barely break even.

Thats a solid point. I bought in a cheap market and live in an expensive one. I also got a good amount of my upgrades at extremely discounted prices as I bought stuff/picked up stuff from members as I drove home from Tenn.

 

[Matts4313]

A vehicle is a money pit, not an investment. The value drops as soon as it's driven off the lot.

Thats mostly true, most of the time. Not sure it applies to the car market at this current time. Used cars are still selling for crazy mark ups.

 

[GrubbyBaja]

Buy the 100% gasser. When everyone changes to all electric in a few years the gassers will be gold!

 

[atpatter]

Buy the 100% gasser. When everyone changes to all electric in a few years the gassers will be gold!

I'm definitely wondering about this, especially after seeing articles suggesting people should charge during the day in CA. I don't think that's going to work too well where I'm at if we have to do that.... It's been nice the last few years but I don't know about the future.

 

[Hootbro]

There is no Magic 8 Ball on the future. Seen plenty of people join here posting similar wanting to know the future and keep waiting in vain year after year being miserable while the rest of us are in the game and enjoying our Gladiators.

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