Tesla Cybertruck anyone?

[WXman]

I hafta disagree with this logic. To give you an example of why this logic isn't how it works in the real world - Nokia had a handheld full screen touchscreen phone in their labs much before Apple, but Nokia's money guys and people in charge decided to "shelve" that innovation to keep the cash cow of their phone business going cuz it was generating billions of $$ for them. If it ain't broke, don't fix it or improve it logic. We all know what happened after Apple released the iPhone... So, I am sure there are a lot of corporate heads in the automotive/oil sector who believe in that theory and not really push advances at break neck pace because it affects their bottom line and their current revenue stream. So, just to say that some innovation hasn't happened in one sector and that is because what we have is the best way is rather one dimensional and naive.

As I have mentioned in some other thread before, I personally am not excited about electrics - I would like to see Hydrogen Fuel Cell cars more than anything but that might not happen in my lifetime either... But, I would like to own a Cybertruck - it will be my first electric unless of course VW releases that Bus in an electric that floors me then I really have to decide LOL.

Google/Open Handset Alliance actually had a functioning plan for the phone before Apple also. Apple rushed their crap to market to try and get the "me first!" recognition. The first iPhone was so bad you couldn't even send pics in text messages. Regardless, it happened. ANY innovation that has a path forward will happen. If company A doesn't do it, company B will. Which actually further proves my point. Nobody has successfully taken a internal combustion engine alternative mainstream in 120 years because there isn't a practical way to do it for the average person. This isn't going to change anytime soon, if ever.

I wouldn't count on this one. More Americans chose electric cars than a manual transmission last quarter. Take rates are quite a bit higher in other parts of the world (notably China and Norway). Most automakers offer at least one BEV nowadays and several are spending billions to stand up or convert manufacturing capacity for electric cars. Tesla may very well build close to 500,000 EVs by itself next year. Even the JT is supposed to get a plug-in hybrid variant before too long. EVs are nearing mainstream status already - I see them all over the place when I visit the Minneapolis area. I saw a Model 3 just the other day between Grand Rapids and Duluth (pretty rural area).

I'm not saying all ICE cars will disappear any time soon, but EVs are here to stay I think. I would not be at all surprised if my i3s and almost-here JT are the last vehicles I get that burn dino juice.

But, hybrids/EVs still only make up a few percent of the total volume sold. And V8 engines are still the #1 seller in pickups, in addition to the fact that they've seen a resurgence in popularity in cars over the last 15 years too, proving that Americans still want gas power, and they still want fun, visceral, enjoyable vehicles to DRIVE. In addition to the lack of mainstream demand, there are all the issues I mentioned above. Charging stations are still very isolated. EVs are limited in range, so this is an issue. Who's going to safety test this truck? Once you get into autonomous EVs it gets even muddier. How do you settle crash liability suits? How do states afford to alter infrastructure so they can navigate safely? What happens to all the human jobs that are lost? It goes on and on. I've seen the meetings at work where they're trying to tackle these issues. It's a giant rat's nest. I don't see EVs and particularly autonomous EVs ever going mainstream in my lifetime. They will always be niche until a few more people die in fires because the electrical system goes down after a crash and traps the occupants inside like the one last year in California, and then they'll start getting regulated so heavily it'll set them back another 5 years, and the circus will continue.

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[DaveNH]

I wouldn't count on this one. More Americans chose electric cars than a manual transmission last quarter.

How many cars still offer a manual? Manuals are disappearing, in large part, because of CAFE. Modern autos with 8-10 gears eek out a few mpg advantage on EPA tests, which over a fleet adds up in terms of fines. Same with small displacement turbocharged engines. I hardly consider EVs outselling manuals an indication of consumer preference.

 

[TheSolarWizard]

Non specialty vehicles will offer steering wheels as options by 2030 and almost no one but leisure drivers will use or have a wheel by the 40s. By then people will reference the number of fuel stations still around as an oddity.


* in the US

 

[ColoradoGlad]

I think the "Mars Rover" did exactly what was intended... Get people talking about Tesla...

Yes it's ridiculous looking... A fraction of this is due to being made of SS and SS doesn't mold well. *Straight panels I.e. Delorean
Only $100 to hold an order... Dinner for 2 so why not...
Bragging rights to go to work and say "Hey, I bought a Telsa Cyber Truck"!
Why $100 when prior reservations were $1,000 to $50,000? Again, get MORE people involved and talking..
Expect a 50% plus refund rate.. *2 years from now..
Will it even look like this in 2 years, doubtful...
Will it be made of SS, doubtful...
Will the base model be $39K, doubtful....
The counter top dash alone would NEVER pass safety standards.. *Sink optional.
They went to curved and padded dashes in the 60's for safety crash reasons...
Where's the model Y? Hummm Hummm

Are EV cars and "trucks" coming and here to say, ABSOLUTELY....
We'll see more Hybrid Plugins in 2020 than anytime prior...

Doesn't every one need a Bullet proof truck! LOL....

 

[xpcdoojk]

I don't think they mean that he will personally go bankrupt.

It's not so outlandish to think that Tesla might, however.

Tesla has never turned an annual profit, and if I'm not mistaken, has only ever posted 5 profitable quarters.

Their sales have arguably been helped by federal and state EV tax credits, especially for the Model 3, where the tax credit might mean the difference between affordable and not for lower-mid middle class families.

But the federal credit is currently being phased out for Tesla. The loss of the credit could push potential buyers into a cheaper Prius or Ioniq.

I'm not saying that Tesla is doomed, but thus far they haven't been a model of financial success.

Elon also comes across as a bit shady at times. Sometimes it seems like Tesla is running in a Ponzi-esque manner, with big announcements and taking deposits, in order to fund current production.

See: Model 3. Elon claims 455k net reservations, at $1000 deposit per customer. That's a big chunk of change, and yet the Model 3 was extremely delayed, especially the so called "affordable" base model.

Now look at the Cybertuck. It's reported that they had over 200k reservations in the first day, at $100 per. That's a cool $20 million.

Add in that it's tough to find any info on Model Y preorders, which are supposed to be delivered next summer, after many were disappointed with the Model 3 rollout. It makes it seem like the Cybertruck preorder is a cash grab to prop up the Model Y.

Jmo.

Woah... logic. I like.

JC

 

[Ringmaster]

Anyone been following the Tesla Cybertruck? Reveal is tonight. There's going to be a stream here:

https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...s/cybertruck-reveal-virtual-viewing-party.21/

And a leaked image today of the rear of it. Looks like solid rear axle which makes sense since this is supposed to be heavy duty.

https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/index.php?threads/tesla-cybertruck-leaked-first-look.41/

This may end up too futuristic looking for some buyers but since it's an EV and it's Tesla, it'll probably introduce some never before seen tech and features in a pickup. Worth following at least IMO. Competition is good.

"Most great inventions fundamentally change the society in which they exist. Since the people at the top of the social structure have more to gain by reinforcing the status quo, they suppress revolutionary technologies favorable to the world but dangerous to their existence."

from Nikola Tesla's 5 Lost Inventions

 

[SleepyJeep]

I don't think they mean that he will personally go bankrupt.

It's not so outlandish to think that Tesla might, however.

Tesla has never turned an annual profit, and if I'm not mistaken, has only ever posted 5 profitable quarters.

Their sales have arguably been helped by federal and state EV tax credits, especially for the Model 3, where the tax credit might mean the difference between affordable and not for lower-mid middle class families.

But the federal credit is currently being phased out for Tesla. The loss of the credit could push potential buyers into a cheaper Prius or Ioniq.

I'm not saying that Tesla is doomed, but thus far they haven't been a model of financial success.

Elon also comes across as a bit shady at times. Sometimes it seems like Tesla is running in a Ponzi-esque manner, with big announcements and taking deposits, in order to fund current production.

See: Model 3. Elon claims 455k net reservations, at $1000 deposit per customer. That's a big chunk of change, and yet the Model 3 was extremely delayed, especially the so called "affordable" base model.

Now look at the Cybertuck. It's reported that they had over 200k reservations in the first day, at $100 per. That's a cool $20 million.

Add in that it's tough to find any info on Model Y preorders, which are supposed to be delivered next summer, after many were disappointed with the Model 3 rollout. It makes it seem like the Cybertruck preorder is a cash grab to prop up the Model Y.

Jmo.

I do agree that Elon tries to generate a marketing buzz with his releases and he uses the Silicon Valley strategy of the reveal of new products and creates orders etc. But, if you really think $20m is going to help with a production of a car you are sadly mistaken that is really chump change when you consider the scale of manufacturing costs of the cars in the pipeline.

Regarding Govt EV credits, didn't the other car companies get credits too from the Govt? Anytime, you are taking over the big dogs in any industry you will have to go thru a few cycles of your financial statements being in the red. I do agree that we don't have the infrastructure yet to prop up EVs and need to reduce charging times. I also believe that the net carbon footprint of EV cars is not that great - but they manufacture these batteries with rare earth metals/minerals mined in Africa, Chile, Argentina, Australia - the only exception being Australia where it is mined somewhat ethically but elsewhere it is all exploitation and the environment there in those countries are not really prioritized cuz they are in other poor countries - out of sight out of mind... People in Chile were protesting that they can't eat batteries cuz all the water was being used to mine these minerals. But, hey if we have clean air here, it is ok for climate change right? #endSarcasm. That is why I prefer Hydrogen Fuel Cell research and it is not enough to have good clean air here but also in the rest of the world for us to keep the environment safe but everyone wants to read the headlines and run with it without truly understanding the depth of the issues.

If you think Elon is engaged in a Ponzi scheme (which he is not, the SEC already came down on him for tweeting a stupid 420 joke so I am sure the SEC and the board is watching his eccentric shenanigans closely), you should see other money managers across many hedge funds and VCs in Silicon Valley. Heck, look at even Warren Buffet's investment in to BofA - There was an article about how Warren calls the CEO of BofA and invests $5b forcefully about 6 years ago and now that investment is worth upwards of $30b with warrants and other special grants for him. Do you think anyone else can pull such a move? This kinda heavy manipulation to generate wealth happens in all the sectors most of which we don't even hear about it. And in many cases even the Govt is involved to force other governments to provide preferential treatment to some select companies.

Elon is the CEO of two large companies and he works like 20 hours a day non-stop, sleeping at the offices and really is fearless while tackling large problems. Even if he fails, you gotta respect that game. We need more people like that in the world IMO.

In any case, I am excited about the truck and want it to be reliable more than anything. But, if it is going to break down every year or so then for that money I would get the new Defender...

 

[DaveNH]

But, if you really think $20m is going to help with a production of a car you are sadly mistaken that is really chump change when you consider the scale of manufacturing costs of the cars in the pipeline.

That was the first day. Trucks are by far the biggest market segment in the US. I suspect that he thinks preorders may ultimately far surpass the 455k for a sedan (Model 3).

Regarding Govt EV credits, didn't the other car companies get credits too from the Govt?

Yes.

And?

Anytime, you are taking over the big dogs in any industry you will have to go thru a few cycles of your financial statements being in the red.

I'll paraphrase David Gordon, on how I feel about Elon.

"Despite the impression I have so far given, Elon is by no means incompetent: quite the contrary. Therein, I suggest, lies the source of the problems with Tesla. Because of his facile intelligence, he thinks that he has a talent for solving problems and need not undertake the hard labor of learning how such reliable, quality automobiles are constructed. Unfortunately for him and Tesla, he is mistaken."

I think his arrogance gets in his way. He comes in as the outsider and just presumes the old auto makers are just stuck in their ways and risk averse. And to be sure, there's some truth to that.

But Elon looks at it and decides he can do it better, but doesn't take the time to learn WHY the old guard act as they do. He just jumps in headfirst.

But unlike software, in a capital intensive industry like auto manufacturing, not taking the time to work out the kinks is a massive financial drain.

Hence the stunts to garner publicity and raise cash.

But, hey if we have clean air here, it is ok for climate change right?

If you think Elon is engaged in a Ponzi scheme

I said that the way he operates appears Ponzi-esque at times, specifically how reveals/preorders seem designed to raise cash for current production.

Ie, it's similar to how in a Ponzi, new investors are needed to pay off old.

I did not say he's running a Ponzi.

 

[TheSolarWizard]

There will be over 500k orders inside 6 months.
even if they only retain 40% of those that is a huge amount.

People freaked out when all 4190 Launch Editions sold yet look how many are still on lots.


I just ordered a midrange for my sister to go along with my 3 motor. I can’t imagine my nephews being as safe in any other vehicle and even though my sister doesn’t like the outside of it, she wants the safest vehicle and one that’s good for snow driving. She’s had a crew f150 on 35s before so the side isn’t daunting either.

 

[SleepyJeep]

Yes.

And?

Well, no one ever brings up the other companies that get subsidies but conveniently pick on Tesla.

I'll paraphrase David Gordon, on how I feel about Elon.

"Despite the impression I have so far given, Elon is by no means incompetent: quite the contrary. Therein, I suggest, lies the source of the problems with Tesla. Because of his facile intelligence, he thinks that he has a talent for solving problems and need not undertake the hard labor of learning how such reliable, quality automobiles are constructed. Unfortunately for him and Tesla, he is mistaken."

I think his arrogance gets in his way. He comes in as the outsider and just presumes the old auto makers are just stuck in their ways and risk averse. And to be sure, there's some truth to that.

But Elon looks at it and decides he can do it better, but doesn't take the time to learn WHY the old guard act as they do. He just jumps in headfirst.

But unlike software, in a capital intensive industry like auto manufacturing, not taking the time to work out the kinks is a massive financial drain.

There is nothing about Elon's intelligence is facile. I am not saying that he is an otherworldly genius but he is intelligent enough to get these things done because he also puts a team of really intelligent folks together and with enough grit it can be done. And it is never one man that does great things in technological advances. To actually ascertain that Elon doesn't know or understand the complexities of auto manufacturing is a joke tbh, he decided to reuse space rockets and even though it took him a few tries - he got it done. So, you are telling me someone who has built space rockets to come and land safely to be reused does not understand auto manufacturing? OK there...

There is a fine line between arrogance and confidence, you have to have such a strong sense of belief when the deck is stacked against you and you are trying to reach new greater heights... If you can't believe in it in your mind, you will never achieve it. You see this in a lot of high performing athletes and a lot of them say they are arrogant but you can't lose the game in your mind before you play it so they truly believe that they can get on the field and crush it, even if the outcome might not suggest it.

I said that the way he operates appears Ponzi-esque at times, specifically how reveals/preorders seem designed to raise cash for current production.

Ie, it's similar to how in a Ponzi, new investors are needed to pay off old.

I did not say he's running a Ponzi.

Well, the very definition of a Ponzi scheme is that there is no product or a commodity or a valuable entity - You just borrow from Peter to pay Paul. If you follow any startups or been involved in one you know that most of them go thru Series A,B,C etc funding rounds even before they release the product and in the process they also pay off some early and angel investors so that is nothing new to innovation and how companies are setup from scratch and raise capital. I think it is rather improper to actually even mention "Ponzi-esque" because they have been building out products and there is a somewhat functioning prototype. Also, the Tesla stock has been up more than 30% since June so he doesn't really need to raise capital this way especially when it is a publicly traded company which is open to scrutiny just like any other company on NASDAQ or NYSE.

 

[PyrPatriot]

I'll paraphrase David Gordon, on how I feel about Elon.

"Despite the impression I have so far given, Elon is by no means incompetent: quite the contrary. Therein, I suggest, lies the source of the problems with Tesla. Because of his facile intelligence, he thinks that he has a talent for solving problems and need not undertake the hard labor of learning how such reliable, quality automobiles are constructed. Unfortunately for him and Tesla, he is mistaken."

I think his arrogance gets in his way. He comes in as the outsider and just presumes the old auto makers are just stuck in their ways and risk averse. And to be sure, there's some truth to that.

But Elon looks at it and decides he can do it better, but doesn't take the time to learn WHY the old guard act as they do. He just jumps in headfirst.

Elon Musk is brilliant; but he is no Nikolai Tesla

 

[DaveNH]

Well, no one ever brings up the other companies that get subsidies but conveniently pick on Tesla.

Well it's irrelevant to the point I was making.

There is nothing about Elon's intelligence is facile.

Facile, used in this instance, is in the meaning of effortless, or easily achieved.

In other words, I think that BECAUSE things come easily to him, he doesn't always feel the need to put in the work.

Well, the very definition of a Ponzi scheme is that there is no product or a commodity or a valuable entity - You just borrow from Peter to pay Paul.

Right. Kinda like how it appears Tesla operates. Except instead of paying off Paul directly, it's to build Paul's car.

Short version... Tesla has blown through a ton of investment money, and yet they're still unprofitable (overall). And it seems like they rely on the promise of future cars to pay for current cars. As opposed to investment and current sales paying for future vehicles.

Also, the Tesla stock has been up more than 30% since June so he doesn't really need to raise capital this way

Against how many years of losses?

Tesla is walking a pretty fine line, and really needs to start hitting some homeruns soon. Ngl, I think that's a big hurdle in the current market.

 

[SleepyJeep]

Well it's irrelevant to the point I was making.

Not really, when you selectively use it against Tesla, then you are insinuating that Tesla is getting preferential treatment not afforded to other companies... When other companies have the subsidies then it does level the playing field a bit. That was the point I was making.

Facile, used in this instance, is in the meaning of effortless, or easily achieved.

In other words, I think that BECAUSE things come easily to him, he doesn't always feel the need to put in the work.

c'mon man, as I mentioned before he is the CEO of 2 large companies that are disrupting the industry verticals and you are telling me that he feels that he doesn't feel the need to put in the work when I tell you he works 16-20 hour days and sleeps in the office? Show me how many other CEOs put in that kinda effort and are relentless in their pursuit?

Right. Kinda like how it appears Tesla operates. Except instead of paying off Paul directly, it's to build Paul's car.

Short version... Tesla has blown through a ton of investment money, and yet they're still unprofitable (overall). And it seems like they rely on the promise of future cars to pay for current cars. As opposed to investment and current sales paying for future vehicles.

Against how many years of losses?

Tesla is walking a pretty fine line, and really needs to start hitting some homeruns soon. Ngl, I think that's a big hurdle in the current market.

I do agree that they have to get profitable but without the infrastructure to support mass adoption and while they work out the kinks and issues, it will take time. You do bring up a good point about profitability, but it will take time. I have to travel for Thanksgiving now but when I have time I will present a simple case study of several successful companies financial statements over several years that have been in the red for years and have come out on top. Having said that, this is no guarantee that Tesla will be extremely successful.

All I am saying is that we need people like Elon and companies like Tesla to disrupt the industry to foster more innovation otherwise the hegemony of powers that may be will dictate to be risk averse and maintain the status quo.

Here is some good information on the cap structure of Tesla even though it is about a year or so older and it should give you more insight into how hard the automotive industry is in general and how even if it goes bankrupt Tesla is here to stay...
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/052316/tesla-stock-capital-structure-analysis-tsla.asp

 

[DaveNH]

Not really,

No, really. Whether other companies also got tax credits is entirely irrelevant to my point.

c'mon man, as I mentioned before he is the CEO of 2 large companies that are disrupting the industry verticals and you are telling me that he feels that he doesn't feel the need to put in the work

I'm talking about Tesla. In short, he didn't know what he didn't know. But it didn't seem like he wanted to learn.

I think he saw something he viewed as a problem and thought he had the solution. But instead of understanding why the old automakers are the way they are, he was just going to prove them wrong in one fell swoop.

Had he been a bit more conservative, and taken the time to learn what he didn't know, Tesla might be in a more sustainable situation currently.

I have to travel for Thanksgiving now but when I have time I will present a simple case study of several successful companies financial statements over several years that have been in the red for years and have come out on top. Having said that, this is no guarantee that Tesla will be extremely successful.

I think this is roulette; every spin is independent. Whether Tesla succeeds had nothing to do with other companies which succeeded despite early losses.

I'd much rather discuss Tesla's specific situation, and reasonable people can disagree. I'll fully acknowledge that my opinion is largely a personal feeling. I see how they're operating and it doesn't inspire confidence to me.

All I am saying is that we need people like Elon and companies like Tesla to disrupt the industry to foster more innovation otherwise the hegemony of powers that may be will dictate to be risk averse and maintain the status quo.

I agree.

I'm not sure that Tesla is one of those companies. I see Tesla's record as not being a good steward of scarce resources, pushing a tech that isn't ready and consumers don't want. Government is complicit in encouraging this.

But I don't want to delve into politics/ economics here, so I'll leave it at that.

it should give you more insight into how hard the automotive industry is in general

Yeah, that's exactly my point. It is a tough industry. But I think that Elon thought it'd be easier for him.

As an aside, this is exactly why the auto bailouts were such a problem. GM would have continued, albeit under new ownership and a more sustainable structure. But the bailouts just screwed over creditors, and kept the most unsustainable parts of the business intact.

 

[SleepyJeep]

No, really. Whether other companies also got tax credits is entirely irrelevant to my point.



I'm talking about Tesla. In short, he didn't know what he didn't know. But it didn't seem like he wanted to learn.

I think he saw something he viewed as a problem and thought he had the solution. But instead of understanding why the old automakers are the way they are, he was just going to prove them wrong in one fell swoop.

Had he been a bit more conservative, and taken the time to learn what he didn't know, Tesla might be in a more sustainable situation currently.

But I don't want to delve into politics/ economics here, so I'll leave it at that.



Yeah, that's exactly my point. It is a tough industry. But I think that Elon thought it'd be easier for him.

As an aside, this is exactly why the auto bailouts were such a problem. GM would have continued, albeit under new ownership and a more sustainable structure. But the bailouts just screwed over creditors, and kept the most unsustainable parts of the business intact.

As you mentioned a lot of this is your view on how Elon thinks, speculation, etc, to which I have to play the contrarian. We are not going to know that. Having started businesses and having had success and failure, I can tell you that no one who starts a business, thinks it is going to be easy - I am talking about any kind of business. So, it is really unjustified to say that he didn't do his homework and thought that it would be a walk in the park. If he had been really conservative the big 3 might have squashed him who knows... It could cut both ways...

Economics is ok, but politics is what people associate with Elon and Tesla and get biased opinions. I have mentioned in another thread here about how much I despised the bailouts in 2008 - so the Govt subsidies and bailouts are really a different discussion and they have been doled out to various industries. I agree with that.

I am just viewing the Cybertruck as a truck without all that and see how capable it will be and if it will bring me joy by being somewhat practical not as a work truck, but as something that I can drive around the country and enjoy. If it can't deliver that I might bail too. As mentioned before I do love the design and I know its not for everyone .

Anyways good discussion and, Happy Thanksgiving

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