Signs the JT Market is Softening?

[busstees]

The Jeep dealer down the street from me in Colorado Springs agreed to sell me a Gladiator at 4% below invoice and they have 24 currently sitting on the lot.

I think most buyers expect a midsize truck to be inexpensive. The Gladiator and the Ranger are not inexpensive. Hence, I have seen exactly one of each in the wild locally.

I just bought a Gator Overland off the lot for 6% off invoice. It may have been because I've had a build order in since 11/9 that is still in D1 and when I ordered it I told them I needed it before end of year for tax purposes and they said it wouldn't be a problem. So, I asked about getting the same 6% off on an Overland on the lot instead of the Sport I ordered and they agreed. It cost me about 6k more in options, but I'll have it tomorrow instead of an unknown date in Jan or even Feb.

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[lrtexasman]

Well the market has softened for Ranger XLTs. Ford is running serious rebates on them now. One can easily purchase at 10k off. A nearby dealer has a XLT Sport 4x4 with nav and all the safety goodies for under 29k. I'm guessing those who bought last year at 5k off are a little sick to see new ones selling for less than what they owe.
https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/detail/784646424/overview/

 

[5JeepsAz]

Thinking along those lines too. But having one already and having it for a year and being first is worth whatever you pay. This is the first jeep truck in decades. JT will get cheaper and more common. The question is at what price and when, more precisely by what method of distribution? With many reported on the lot, they will move into the street. By way of? Fleet sales? Lower price? What?

 

[Mightytalldude]

Thinking along those lines too. But having one already and having it for a year and being first is worth whatever you pay. This is the first jeep truck in decades. JT will get cheaper and more common. The question is at what price and when, more precisely by what method of distribution? With many reported on the lot, they will move into the street. By way of? Fleet sales? Lower price? What?

New run vehicle lines are really hard to judge for initial sales. Jeep has strong sales for Wranglers, but the truck market is cutthroat and very brand loyal. Up until this year, I've had a Ford pickup since 1985. "Downsized" to the Gladiator mostly in cab width and height from my Super Duty, but almost the same wheelbase, but now a less thirsty V6 instead of a very thirsty V10. The sale of my Super Duty funded the majority of my Gladiator, so cost wasn't quite as much a factor, but today's trucks are just too expensive no matter the brand.

 

[5JeepsAz]

New run vehicle lines are really hard to judge for initial sales. Jeep has strong sales for Wranglers, but the truck market is cutthroat and very brand loyal. Up until this year, I've had a Ford pickup since 1985. "Downsized" to the Gladiator mostly in cab width and height from my Super Duty, but almost the same wheelbase, but now a less thirsty V6 instead of a very thirsty V10. The sale of my Super Duty funded the majority of my Gladiator, so cost wasn't quite as much a factor, but today's trucks are just too expensive no matter the brand.

Well, the early adopters are in. Whether they switched from a Jeep (canabilized) or an SUV (other market) or they came from a bigger truck (brand switch) or a midsize truck (also brand switch). People who wanted to switch have done so. Still, there are trucks on the lot unsold. So where do the next buyers come from? I mean, they are going to have what, 75,000, a hundred fifty thousand of these JT's built, maybe two hundred twenty five thousand by the end of 2020? Unless they drop price and flood the market, they are trying really to barge into a tight truck market with a high price lifestyle vehicle.

 

[PyrPatriot]

Well, the early adopters are in. Whether they switched from a Jeep (canabilized) or an SUV (other market) or they came from a bigger truck (brand switch) or a midsize truck (also brand switch). People who wanted to switch have done so. Still, there are trucks on the lot unsold. So where do the next buyers come from? I mean, they are going to have what, 75,000, a hundred fifty thousand of these JT's built, maybe two hundred twenty five thousand by the end of 2020? Unless they drop price and flood the market, they are trying really to barge into a tight truck market with a high price lifestyle vehicle.

If they built that many year 1, well maybe their analysts know something I dont. The Honda Element exceeded expectations its first year and they still only sold about 350k of those $20k vehicles between 2003 and 2011

 

[BAT]

Isn't the Bronco supposed to come on the market soon. That is liable to give folks another option to look at

 

[Mightytalldude]

Isn't the Bronco supposed to come on the market soon. That is liable to give folks another option to look at

The Bronco would compete against the Wrangler, unless they brought a Bronco truck into the mix, but that would reduce sales for the Ranger, so I wouldn't expect that just yet.

 

[BAT]

The Bronco would compete against the Wrangler, unless they brought a Bronco truck into the mix, but that would reduce sales for the Ranger, so I wouldn't expect that just yet.

I remember so many people back in the day buying Bronco's and cutting off the cab or modding the cab

 

[smlobx]

There’s a lot of debate as to wether the new Bronco will have SFA or IFS. Since it’s supposed to be based on the T6 (Ranger) platform my bet is that it will have IFS.
If that’s so it will not be able to compete Offroad with the JL.

 

[MoparDave]

There’s a lot of debate as to wether the new Bronco will have SFA or IFS. Since it’s supposed to be based on the T6 (Ranger) platform my bet is that it will have IFS.
If that’s so it will not be able to compete Offroad with the JL.

My bet is the same as yours.
Jeep poser.

 

[lrtexasman]

Bronco is reported by a couple insiders to have a truck option as well with a removable top and doors. It will be so expensive though I doubt it impacts Gladiator sales. However, I could see the new Ram mid-size crew cab truck with IFS, luxury interior, 4x4 for 35k (starting price around 25k) really hurting sales. Equip it with a diesel for under 38k and most of your sport and sport s buyers will be tempted. Of course the Gladiator has a bit of a head start on the others and will likely fix some of the annoying issues over next couple years.

If that's a Dakota in the pics it's sized right

Nice rendering of a future Bronco Truck

Good article on the topic.
Fiat Chrysler Built Way Too Many Cars — And Now The “Sales Blitz” Is On
FCA's "Employee Pricing Plus" campaign is still going on

By
Zach Butler
-
December 20, 2019
Bloomberg report. The automaker is deeply discounting its 2019 models, trying to entice its 2,400 dealers to take on and sell more vehicles as its unassigned inventory swelled through the end of this year.

FCA currently has an inventory problem driven by its data-driven production strategy, which kept production plants running, but led to swelling inventory that dealers didn’t order. It reportedly accumulated a stock of 70,000 unassigned vehicles in December. The company says it’s the culmination of a new system to forecast demand using data analytics, which means supplies can wax and wane over the course of the year. Dealers told Bloomberg they’re now being prodded to take unassigned inventory from a so-called “sales bank” to deal with the overproduction issue.

On the other hand, FCA says the build-up is just a side effect of a system which saved $445 million through the third quarter of 2019. The system reportedly trimmed out 140,000 vehicles from inventory that would have otherwise sat unsold. “Our new supply chain management strategy based on predictive analytics continues to work well for us, even as we continue to refine it,” according to Niel Golightly, FCA’s global communications officer.

The Jeep Grand Cherokee is currently FCA’s best-selling car.
Excess stock leads to big discounts
Automakers and dealers grappling with oversupply is nothing new, and inventory has fluctuated throughout the year. The 40,000-strong supply of unassigned cars dwindled down to 5,000 in the third quarter, then swelled to 60,000 in November and 70,000 in December, according to a person close to the situation.

New car buyers have been able to take advantage of FCA’s employee pricing discounts since November. Right now, the company is offering its most aggressive pricing since 2008, and that will likely continue through the holidays in light of the fire-sale. So if you’re looking to buy a new car right now, cars like the Jeep Cherokee or trucks like the Ram 1500 may come be available with some screaming deals.

 

[5JeepsAz]

If they built that many year 1, well maybe their analysts know something I dont. The Honda Element exceeded expectations its first year and they still only sold about 350k of those $20k vehicles between 2003 and 2011

Sorry, meant cumulative. thought It was 75,000 to 100,000 per year. 25,000 a quarter starting in Q2, plus Q3,Q4, Q1 we could be at about 100,,000 built by April 2020. If they build 25,000 in Q2, Q3, that gets us to 150,000 built by August of 2020. Getting 100,000 plus JT's on the street ....

 

[aj8544]

Sorry, meant cumulative. thought It was 75,000 to 100,000 per year. 25,000 a quarter starting in Q2, plus Q3,Q4, Q1 we could be at about 100,,000 built by April 2020. If they build 25,000 in Q2, Q3, that gets us to 150,000 built by August of 2020. Getting 100,000 plus JT's on the street ....

Built is one thing- but sold is another. Q3 sales were just over 16,000. I hope I am wrong but I doubt if 100k total are sold by August. Just judging by the seemingly stagnant growing inventory and the fact that the people who were dying to buy one probably already did.

 

[Bowerss2]

I wish when they were building all these JTs for inventory they would take the chance to build the one I ordered a month ago haha

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